Latest brief
The ban that moved the barrels
The EU's palm-oil biofuel phase-out, scored against what physically happened. It cut palm's role in European fuel by half, but the model evidence says most of that demand was displaced rather than eliminated, and the deforestation it meant to stop followed its own clock. Sourced to RED II, the WTO panels, USDA, GAPKI, and the peer-reviewed leakage literature.


